OK, good on Fresno, but Orange County has a population density of 3,200/sqmi and LA County is 2,100/sqmi. If population density is controlling, then you'd expect an adjusted rate in Orange that's 1.5 greater. So, 3,000,000 with 2546 dead in Orange, there should be [(14,000,000/3,000,000) x 2546]/1.5 = 7,920 dead in LA County. Actual total today is 14,641 or just about 2X expected on this basis. Comparing both to Fresno, it's interesting that total population is a better indicator than density, if still not really good, because Fresno is 1/14 the density of Orange and 1/21 that of LA and on that basis should be showing 100 dead, not 1020. There may be population inhomogeneity issues at work, where there is a much higher local density within each county that could account for the apparent strangeness, but I really have no idea of the general character of each.
We can only go by the numbers we get. However fiddled and diddled they may be, they are the only ones we have, unless you've got alternative sources.
alternative sources are way too close to alternative facts.. ;-)
not touching that, and i don't have anything more than you do.
and you are right, it's perplexing. there is a lot about this that
we don't understand yet, and slapping blue or red whitewash
over it doesn't help any of us with it.
i've been to fresno a few times in the last two months on lighting certifications.
i have zero clue on why fresno is doing as well as they are. bully on them.
i think they live a charmed life.
i walk into a starbucks, fresno. blackstone ave. they are trimming out.
lutron is there, programming. Vive system, couple hours work tops.
there are 25~30 different people, all trades, trying to wrap it. 2000 sq ft
occupancy. no HVAC yet. no airflow.
stick head in door.
nobody, repeat nobody, has a mask of any type on. including
the electrical inspector. except one guy. the lutron programmer. i go out to the car,
change the half mask for the PAPR, and go inside. talk to the lutron programmer,
who is NOT thrilled to be inside, and suggest he program it from outside the store.
we go outside. he's a bit freaked. i'm fine. i''m not taking off the mask until i'm done.
the logical progress of viral mutation seems to be predictable, however. we have a
disbursed virus evolving randomly. this latest round of variants are similar enough
and are occurring close enough on a timeline to indicate they are naturally evolving.
however, when the viruses are standing around in the parking lot after work, shooting
the bull, and england and south america are bragging about their newest offerings,
and africa say.... hold my beer, watch this... everyone stands back respectfully and
waits.... everyone has seen south africa step up to the plate. they don't screw around.
probably the best thing i have read on pandemics is this, and it's long, but gives a
pretty good insight as to how we got here. politically and socially, 1918 and 2020
aren't much different in some of the stuff we have done with this.
lets remember that the spanish flu didn't start in spain. it started in the US,
spain was the only nation not suppressing reporting on the pandemic for war purposes,
and they got it named after them as a result.
The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History [Barry, John M.] on Amazon.com. *FREE* shipping on qualifying offers. The Great Influenza: The Story of the Deadliest Pandemic in History
www.amazon.com
