Assuming Arc Faults are Behind Fires

[mbrooke]

Considering the flood of reduced pickup thermal magnetic circuit breakers since the mid 80s into the market have resulted in most circuits being 100% protected from paralleling arcing, how do we know that any reduction is dwelling unit fires since the introduction of electronic AFCIs is the result signature electronics vs the reduced pickup found in virtually all new 15 and 20 amp breakers?









Proponents like like to cite the steadily decline in residential fires over the past 4 decades, however in theory this can just as easily be attributed to low pickup found in all breakers both AFCIs and standard thermal mags.


Has anyone tried to convey this?

 

[hbiss]

Proponents like to cite the steadily decline in residential fires over the past 4 decades,

Just like anything else these guys say, I wouldn't believe them any more than a used car salesman. The NEC got suckered, but we should be smart enough to see through it.

I have not heard of any data that indicates a decline of residential fires. Besides, AFCIs have been around for 20 years with a gradual
implementation in new construction over the last 9. How can they take credit for a decline over 40 years?

-Hal

 

[mbrooke]

Just like anything else these guys say, I wouldn't believe them any more than a used car salesman. The NEC got suckered, but we should be smart enough to see through it.

I have not heard of any data that indicates a decline of residential fires. Besides, AFCIs have been around for 20 years with a gradual
implementation in new construction over the last 9. How can they take credit for a decline over 40 years?

-Hal

Problem is a lot of electricians are falling for it. Some of the most passionate debates have been on other forums- they just can't accept the fact someone would be lying citing this:

https://www.nfpa.org//-/media/Files...m/Fire-causes/osHomeElectricalFiresTables.pdf

 

[jmellc]

House fires may also be down because of safer space heaters with tipover protection. Also some reduction with increased use of LED bulbs with less heat.

Aside from electrical, we have safer kerosene heaters and fewer people smoking

 

[romex jockey]

It's how the stats are collected that allows for marketing misconceptions.

Consider, most small FD's do not have the budgets for forensics

It's literally the 'white helmets' best guess....

~RJ~

 

[hbiss]

That's laughable. They collected and analyzed the data themselves. Talk about self serving. How about statistics from an independent organization (which I believe we have already seen).

-Hal

 

[tortuga]

Did I miss something ?
Whats a 'reduced pickup thermal magnetic circuit breaker'?

 

[jmellc]

Back to the Indianapolis fire marshall who claimed that AFCI breakers would have prevented a particular fire. I responded on the video, asking if he had looked into whether the house’s devices were backstabbed.

 

[rnatalie]

The paper quoted above shows that house wiring (in total) only accounts for 39% of the electrical fires but attributes arcing to nearly 70% of all.

 

[hbiss]

Whats a 'reduced pickup thermal magnetic circuit breaker'?

I believe they are talking about a breaker that will trip more quickly and on a lower percentage of overload than an older design. You would have to compare the curves. Kind of like the difference between a fast blow and a slow blow fuse.

-Hal

 

[mbrooke]

That's laughable. They collected and analyzed the data themselves. Talk about self serving. How about statistics from an independent organization (which I believe we have already seen).

-Hal

ESFI is far from independent btw.

 

[mbrooke]

The paper quoted above shows that house wiring (in total) only accounts for 39% of the electrical fires but attributes arcing to nearly 70% of all.

I am grateful for the fact you can see this.

 

[mbrooke]

I believe they are talking about a breaker that will trip more quickly and on a lower percentage of overload than an older design. You would have to compare the curves. Kind of like the difference between a fast blow and a slow blow fuse.

-Hal

Yes- in particular the magnetic trip threshold that has gone down to around 10X.

 

[robertd]

House fires may also be down because of safer space heaters with tipover protection. Also some reduction with increased use of LED bulbs with less heat.

Aside from electrical, we have safer kerosene heaters and fewer people smoking

And smoke detectors.

 

[retirede]

And smoke detectors.

Smoke alarms do not prevent fires, so shouldn’t affect these stats.
They do cut down on fatalities by announcing the fire to occupants.

 

[drcampbell]

When smoke alarms announce the fire early enough, the residents may be able to extinguish it themselves without calling the fire department and without the fire getting tallied up. In the bulk statistics, it will appear as if that fire never started.

A similar thing happened in Baltimore when they revamped the traditional emergency-room design and created the first integrated trauma center. Nothing changed on the streets, but because the survival rate increased, the murder rate decreased.

 

[mbrooke]

I have a feeling most fires have nothing to do with in wall electrical.

 

[jmellc]

I have a feeling most fires have nothing to do with in wall electrical.

Again, I have heard a few inspectors say that a fire marshal will often declare faulty wiring if no other cause is found. On top of that, I heard a few forensic scientists on Forensic Files say that fire investigations are often sloppy and inaccurate, at least in the times the show was filmed.

 

[hbiss]

On top of that, I heard a few forensic scientists on Forensic Files say that fire investigations are often sloppy and inaccurate

As long as it wasn't arson I don't think they care how it started.

-Hal

 

[romex jockey]

ESFI is far from independent btw.

Electrical Safety Foundation International (ESFI): The premier non-profit organization dedicated exclusively to promoting electrical safety at home and in the workplace.

Founded in 1994 as a cooperative effort by the National Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA), Underwriters Laboratories (UL), and the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC), ESFI depends on the support of community and industry stakeholders to provide funding for the development...

www.esfi.org

they are the very same folks who aggressively marketed afci technology MBrooke

~RJ~